News and Opinion Links

March 5 2010

We Can’t Wish Away Climate Change
Al Gore, NY Times
China, now the world’s largest and fastest-growing source of global-warming pollution, had privately signaled early last year that if the United States passed meaningful legislation, it would join in serious efforts to produce an effective treaty. When the Senate failed to follow the lead of the House of Representatives, forcing the president to go to Copenhagen without a new law in hand, the Chinese balked. With the two largest polluters refusing to act, the world community was paralyzed.

Republican Party Taken Over By The Lunatic Fringe?
Vicki Impoco, Florida Today
Politico has revealed an RNC manipulative fundraising document which preys on people's baser instincts in a PowerPoint presentation. The document was left at a Florida hotel where Republicans gathered Feb.18th and discussed strategies for potential campaign donors. The Republican National Committee plans to raise money this election cycle through an aggressive campaign capitalizing on "fear" as a motivation to give.... again. This time fear of President Obama. DNC spokesman Brad Woodhouse stated "If you had any doubt, any doubt whatsoever, that the Republican Party has been taken over by the fear-mongering lunatic fringe, those doubts were erased today."

A theory that works (part 2)
Gordon Ringoen, Prudent Bear
As we learned in elementary physics, it takes energy to create work.  It takes energy to run any machine, to grow plants and it even takes about 20 watts of energy for us to think for an hour. From this perspective, it would be easy to assume that the economy that consumes the most energy would be the one that had the largest work product or as we call it in economics, GDP..Energy is the most important factor of production and not capital, labor, and technology.  And, oil is the most important source of that energy.

The last days of economic growth
Daniel Pargman, Energy Bulletin
In the preface to "The last days of economic growth: Green clash over worldviews" (2007), Björn Forsberg describes how the book emerged from thoughts and ideas that did not fit his Ph.d. thesis in political science. The whole book, but especially the first few chapters, are written without any trace of mercy as Forsberg pummels his pro-growth ideological opponents. Even if the environmental and climate challenges are central to the book, Forsberg's furious accusations are primarily addressed at the "root of evil" - a society based on the idea of endless economic growth.

Life After Growth
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
In late 2009 and early 2010, the economy showed some signs of renewed vigor. Understandably, everyone wants it to get "back to normal." But here's a disturbing thought: What if that is not possible? What if the goalposts have been moved, the rules rewritten, the game changed? What if the decades-long era of economic growth based on ever-increasing rates of resource extraction, manufacturing, and consumption is over, finished, and done? What if the economic conditions that all of us grew up expecting to continue practically forever were merely a blip on history's timeline? It's an uncomfortable idea, but one that cannot be ignored: The "normal" late-20th century economy of seemingly endless growth actually emerged from an aberrant set of conditions that cannot be perpetuated.

An Exergy Crisis
John Michael Greer, Archdruid Report
..what we're facing isn't global warming but "global weirding:" not a simple increase in temperature, but an increase in unexpected and disruptive weather events. As the atmosphere heats up, the most important effect of that shift isn't the raw increase in temperature; rather, it's the increase in the difference in energy concentration between the atmosphere and the oceans..Thus the most visible result of a relatively rapid rise in the heat concentration of the atmosphere isn't a generalized warming. Rather, it's an increase in extreme weather conditions on both ends of the temperature scale.

February 26 2010

Marco Rubio Fiscal Conservative?
Vicki Impoco, Florida Today blog
Florida Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio whose campaign mantra blasts excesses of government spending charged grocery bills, car repairs and other personal expenses to a GOP issued credit card during his tenure as speaker of the Florida State House. According the Miami Herald and The St. Petersburg Times charges covered by the party as political expenses include:
    $765 at Apple's online store for computer supplies.
    $25.76 from Everglades Lumber for supplies.
    $53.49 at Winn-Dixie in Miami for food.
    $68.33 at Happy Wine in Miami for beverages.
    $1,000 charge at Braman Honda in Miami for repairs to the family car.
    $1,024 in three payments to a Tallahassee property management group.
    Six plane tickets for his wife.
    ...

Bust the Health Care Trusts
Robert Reich, NY Times
Insurers have been seeking to raise premiums 24 percent in Connecticut, 23 percent in Maine, 20 percent in Oregon and a wallet-popping 56 percent in Michigan. How can insurers raise prices as much as they want without fear of losing customers? Astonishingly, the health insurance industry is exempt from federal antitrust laws, which is why a handful of insurers have become so dominant in their markets that their customers simply have nowhere else to go. But that protection could soon end: President Obama on Tuesday announced his support of a House bill that would repeal health insurers’ antitrust exemption, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled that she would put it toward an immediate vote.

Energy follows its bliss
John Michael Greer, Energy Bulletin
Industrial civilization is a complicated thing, and its decline and fall bids fair to be more complicated still, but both rest on the refreshingly simple foundations of physical law. That's crucial to keep in mind, because the raw emotional impact of the unwelcome future breathing down our necks just now can make it far too easy to retreat into one form or another of self-deception. Plenty of the new energy technologies discussed so enthusiastically on the internet these days might as well be poster children for this effect.

The new wave: Harnessing the power of the ocean
CNN
Producing electricity using the power of the oceans could start a new wave in renewable energy. But some fear that "wave farms" could damage the livelihoods of fishermen by rendering coastal waters off limits..wave power is still an untapped resource, which some believe could one day generate a tenth of the world's renewable energy.

Rehearsals for a Civil War
James Howard Kunstler, kunstler.com
Amid the general incoherence of the Tea Party rebels and the failure of progressives to recognize the structural changes underway in a peak oil world, lies a deadly swamp of paradox where all parties may drown in the quicksand of their own muddled intentions.
The Tea Party appeals to the swelling numbers of the new former middle class angry at the sudden vanishing of their accustomed perqs and entitlements to a predictably comfortable suburban existence. They're mad at the government and hot for "liberty."

Our world balances on a sea of debt
Darius Guppy, The Telegraph
The truth is not that these institutions have suddenly become insolvent but that they were never really solvent in the first place. By rolling over their debts they have been able to keep them on their books as "assets" rather than losses and forestall the evil hour..It is a simple and devastatingly effective swindle, but largely invisible because it has become so deeply embedded in our culture. The consequences of that swindle - the desperate need for economic growth; the environmental and cultural despoliation it engenders - require some radical thinking one encounters nowhere in any of today's political parties.

Wall Street Targets the Elderly: Looting Social Security
Paul Craig Roberts, Silver Bear Cafe
Hank Paulson, the Gold Sacks bankster/US Treasury Secretary, who deregulated the financial system, caused a world crisis that wrecked the prospects of foreign banks and governments, caused millions of Americans to lose retirement savings, homes, and jobs, and left taxpayers burdened with multi-trillions of dollars of new US debt, is still not in jail. He is writing in the New York Times urging that the mess he caused be fixed by taking away from working Americans the Social Security and Medicare for which they have paid in earmarked taxes all their working lives. Wall Street’s approach to the poor has always been to drive them deeper into the ground.

Sustainability, lasting recovery, and other myths
Peter Pogany, Energy Bulletin
The contradiction between sustainability and vigorous growth is shrouded by the myth that Mammon-worshiping, Pareto optimal pugilism in unregulated markets is the sole path to the betterment of mankind. The approach that has proved to be successful in developing and mass producing consumer goods and shuffling around resources of lesser importance is turning into a catastrophe-maker. Failure of the long-run rise in the marginal cost of oil to cause market-induced conservation (reduced demand and decisive substitution) signals a new age just as convincingly as passing the Pillars of Hercules heralded another world for ancient mariners. Increasingly nasty encounters between the human overflow and hard physical obstacles are likely to lead to a macrohistoric mutation.

Peak demand: The cornucopians reach for a fig leaf
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
Archcornucopian Daniel Yergin, who kept calling for mushrooming oil supplies throughout the last decade, now tells us that flat production is really the consequence of peak oil demand. Developed nations will from this day forward require no greater quantities of oil. He does acknowledge that demand may grow in China in the years to come. His firm, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), is on record suggesting that oil production capacity will likely grow 25 percent from now through 2030. But the forecast is later hedged..

January 22 2010

Copenhagen & Economic Growth - You Can't Have Both
Chris Martenson, chrismartenson.com
Before and during Copenhagen (and after, too, we can be sure), politicians and central bankers across the globe have worked tirelessly to return the global economy to a path of growth..But the consensus coming out of Copenhagen is that carbon emissions have to be reduced by a vast amount over the next few decades. These two ideas are mutually exclusive. You can't have both. (Martenson's website and "crash course" provide an excellent introduction to the intertwined issues of energy/environment/economy. - Bob)

"Glacier gate" - how the Murdoch press have got it wrong on the Himalayan big melt
Damien Lawson and David Spratt, Climate Action Center
Recently, the Murdoch press have continued their campaign of climate denial and delay by giving front-page prominence to a five-day-old story attacking the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of glacial melt in the Himalayan-Tibetan ranges by 2035.."The Times" (UK) and subsequently "The Australian" and other Murdoch papers have tried to shift from a debate about TIMING to a questioning of global warming.

Biophysical economics: Putting energy at the center
Kurt Cobb, Scitizen
Many scientists have long complained that standard economics fails to account for the biological and physical systems that form the basis of the economy. In short, the economy is a subset of the environment and governed by the same biological and physical laws as every other system on the planet.

Saudi Arabia and the oil bank
Chris Cook, Asia Times
I believe that it is macro manipulation by oil producers, funded by cheap money from investors, which has been the principal reason for recent movements in the oil price. The advantage producers have over oil traders is that producers are able to store their oil in the ground for free.

My View: Zygote fanatics push Personhood Amendment
Gary J. Whittenberger and Richard Hull, Tallahassee Democrat 
According to legend, one night in 1775, Paul Revere made his famous ride and shouted, "The British are coming! The British are coming!" inspiring the Sons of Liberty to action. Today, in similar manner, we declare, "The zygote fanatics are coming! The zygote fanatics are coming!" These fanatics constitute a small, vocal group of Floridians and outsiders trying to get 670,000 registered voters to sign a petition aimed at placing an amendment to the state constitution on the ballot in November 2010. If approved by 60 percent of voters, this amendment would cause the word "person" to be applied to all "human beings" from the "beginning of biological development." The beginning is the formation of a single-celled human zygote, resulting from the union of a sperm and an egg, which is smaller than the period at the end of this sentence. The zygote fanatics want every human zygote to be treated legally as if it were an adult human being! This ludicrous idea that would have devastating effects on our state.

February 12 2010

The Debt Contretemps Everybody's Ignoring
Randall W. Forsyth, Barron's
China may be preparing to sell some of U.S. securities for financial or geopolitical motivations, or a combination of the two, according to two different accounts..Moreover, David Goldman, writing on the Inner Workings blog at the Asia Times internet site (www.atimes.com) wrote the Chinese government has ordered reserve managers to divest themselves of all U.S. securities that aren't backed by the implicit or explicit U.S. government, which would leave only Treasuries and certain U.S. agency securities. That would cover Chinese institutions' substantial holdings of U.S. corporate and asset-backed securities.

The Next Crisis: Prepare for Peak Oil
Patience Wheatcroft, Wall Street Journal
..the work of the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security shouldn't be disparagingly dismissed. Its arguments are well founded and lead it to the conclusion that, while the global downturn may have delayed it by a couple of years, peak oil-the point at which global production reaches its maximum-is no more than five years away. Governments and corporations need to use the intervening years to speed up the development of and move toward other energy sources and increased energy efficiency.

An EU Protectorate: How Brussels Is Trying to Prevent a Collapse of the Euro
Armin Mahler, Christian Reiermann, Wolfgang Reuter and Hans-Jürgen Schlamp, Der Spiegel
The problems facing Greece are just the beginning. The countries belonging to Europe's common currency zone are drifting further and further apart, and national bankruptcies are a distinct possibility. Brussels is faced with a number of choices, none of them good.

The Emperor Has No Clothes
Chris Martenson, chrismartenson.com
The idea that there's no room to cut government expenditures without seriously impacting the economy is pure bunk.  We could easily trim defense spending without impacting our economy in the slightest..if we diverted money being spent on military expenditures into, say, high speed trains, wind farms, natural gas pipelines and distribution stations, and an upgraded electrical smart grid (for example), we'd get far more immediate and lasting economic benefit (and improved national security too, I might point out) than we would out of so-called "defense spending."

We're Weimar
James Howard Kunstler, kunstler.com (blog)
The delusional craziness of the Tea Partyists exists in direct proportion to the wimpy deceit of the government, especially in matters of money and statistics reporting. Our political leaders are resorting to wholesale deceit because the truth of our situation -- comprehensive bankruptcy -- is too painful to dwell on and for the most part they are too chicken too state it.

Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed
Gail the Actuary, The Oil Drum
If you stop to think about it, there a quite a few differences in the way the economy functions in a period of economic growth and in a period of economic decline. The assumption of continued economic growth by traditional economists (who don't consider resources and their limits) has been so strong that most have not even considered what the economy would look like in a period of long-term decline.

February 4 2010

The Royalty Boondoggle
Editorial, NY Times
In 1995, when oil prices were very low, Congress tried to encourage deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico by giving oil companies relief from some of the royalties they incur for producing oil and gas on public land. It has never been clear how much new exploration this provision inspired, since steadily rising prices provided plenty of incentive. What is clear is that it has been a good deal for the industry and a bad deal for taxpayers. According to the Government Accountability Office, the provision could allow industry to escape up to $54 billion in legitimate royalties, depending on the price of oil.

An Insider's View of the Real Estate Train Wreck
John Mauldin, Outside the Box
They created a nearly perfect political formula in dealing with housing, and they are going to follow that formula. The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times about "Should we nationalize the home loan market in America." No. It happened right under our noses and with no hue and cry. That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

Time Essay: The Nightmare Life Without Fuel
Isaac Asimov, Time (1977)
There are many advantages, if you want to look for them..The air is cleaner and there seem to be fewer colds. Against most predictions, the crime rate has dropped. With the police car too expensive (and too easy a target), policemen are back on their beats. More important, the streets are full. Legs are king in the cities..and people walk everywhere far into the night. Even the parks are full, and there is mutual protection in crowds.

January 15 2010

The year climate science caught up with what climate scientists have been saying privately for years
Joseph Romm, Climate Progress
"In 2009, the scientific literature caught up with what top climate scientists have been saying privately for a few years now: Many of the predicted impacts of human-caused climate change are occurring much faster than anybody expected - particularly ice melt, everywhere you look on the planet. If we stay anywhere near our current emissions path, we are facing incalculable catastrophes by century’s end, including rapid sea level rise, massive wildfires, widespread Dust-Bowlification, large oceanic dead zones, and 9°F warming - much of which could be all but irreversible for centuries."

Heads in the Sand? Or, Why Don’t Governments Talk about Peak Oil?
Shane Mulligan, The Oil Drum
"The ongoing borrowing binge, dressed up as a Keynesian stimulus, seems to many an utterly unsustainable corporate welfare scheme being loaded on the backs of generations yet to come. If governments realize that the old game of capitalism cannot be sustained under conditions of declining energy, then the future of capitalism - at least under existing rules - becomes somewhat irrelevant. In that case, perhaps the only thing to do is seek to gain whatever can be withdrawn from the system prior to a major rule-change. Whether these advantages will still hold under whatever new rules emerge remains an open question."

Supply Chain Comment: The Start of Demand Destruction for Oil?
Mike Loughrin, Supply Chain Digest
"Research suggests that rising oil prices impact supply chain dynamics in manners that are best understood through total landed cost analysis and network optimization studies. Some studies, including those published by SCDigest, suggest that oil at $150 a barrel is the tipping point where transportation costs can overwhelm the low labor costs in far away countries; the result is a total landed cost calculation that favors production and distribution facilities close to the customer."

January 8 2010

The Case for Reform
Editorial, NY Times
Reforming this country’s broken health care system is an urgent and essential task. Given all of the fabrications and distortions from Republican critics, and the squabbling among Democratic supporters, it is no surprise that many Americans still have doubts. President Obama and Democratic leaders have a strong case. They need to make it now. Here are compelling reasons for all Americans to root for the reform effort to succeed and urge Congress to complete the job..

Follow the Money -- Into a Double-Dip
Randall W. Forsyth, Barron's
The notion of a tightness in the money supply seems to fly in the face of all the "money printing" by the Fed since the intensification of the credit crisis in the fall of 2008. But what the Fed supplies is the monetary equivalent of crude oil to the economy, which actually runs on the refined product analogous to gasoline -- money and credit supplied by the banks. And it is those banking "refineries" whose output has been lagging, resulting in a now-shrinking broad money supply.

Housebreaking the Corporations
John Michael Greer, Energy Bulletin
The role of corporate influence in maintaining an increasingly dysfunctional status quo has been much discussed in peak oil circles, and various remedies proposed. The irony here is that effective remedies for the antisocial behavior of corporations are ready to hand, if we make a collective choice to use them -- and that choice may be made sooner than many people currently expect.

US scientists demand government ban on mountaintop mining
Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian
Mountaintop mining should be banned for causing vast and permanent destruction to US environment and exposing its people to serious health consequences such as birth defects, a new study says today. An article in the journal Science, by a team of 12 ecologists, hydrologists, and engineers, provides the most comprehensive analysis so far of the damage done by the controversial mining practice. The process involves shaving off up to 1,000 vertical feet of mountain peak - including ancient forests - to expose thin, but highly prized, seams of coal.

How Much Longer Will Our Chinese Food Be Delivered?
Jeff Rubin, Jeff Rubin's Smaller World
..the average distance from farm gate to dinner table has now risen to over fifteen hundred miles. That's a bad energy deal in its own right: for every calorie of energy delivered by imported food, you burn, on average, three more calories getting it to your dinner table. But at triple-digit oil prices, bunker fuel costs will price many of those long-distance food imports right out of your shopping cart.

Dennis Meadows - Economics and Limits to Growth: What's Sustainable?
Gail the Actuary, The Oil Drum
"It was astonishing to me in 1972 that people could start from the assumption that there are no limits. It has been even more amazing to see the evolution to this thinking. Initially, the assumption was that people were just uninformed. The assumption was that if we can manage to give them the facts, they will change their opinion, and fall into line. Nothing I have seen in 40 years gives me support for that opinion. If you marshall enough facts to disprove an objection, then the critics will just find another objection. There are an infinite number of objections, so you are never going to come to the end of the process."

The Meaning of Copenhagen
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
To my thinking, Copenhagen is something of a last straw. I have no interest in trying to discourage anyone from undertaking national or global activism. Indeed, there is a danger in taking attention away from national and international affairs: policy could get hijacked not just by parties even less competent than those currently in command, but by ones that are just plain evil. Nevertheless, this writer is finally convinced that, with whatever energies for positive change may be available to us, we are likely to accomplish the most by working locally and on a small scale, while sharing information about successes and failures as widely as possible.

Reverend Robert Revisited
Shelly Gottlieb, email from friend "Ross"
     In 1798 Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus wrote an essay on  ‘Population’ which was probably about the size of a 250 page modern book.  Perhaps it is good for the reader to remember that was long before the days of Tesla’s wireless radio and modern T.V. etc.  Newspapers were not very old or as pervasive as today.  Perhaps an essay was more likely to be read than a book.
      At the end of this decade that inaugurated the new millennium, Earth Day and Arbor Day may be a great time to remember the clarion call of this very bright, caring, thoughtful minister.

December 31 2009

Tidings of Comfort
Paul Krugman, NY Times
..for all its flaws and limitations, it’s a great achievement. It will provide real, concrete help to tens of millions of Americans and greater security to everyone. And it establishes the principle - even if it falls somewhat short in practice - that all Americans are entitled to essential health care. Many people deserve credit for this moment. What really made it possible was the remarkable emergence of universal health care as a core principle during the Democratic primaries of 2007-2008 - an emergence that, in turn, owed a lot to progressive activism.

The Next Step on Health Reform
Editorial, NY Times
The Senate’s passage of a heath care reform bill over lockstep Republican opposition required every single member of the Democratic caucus to vote to override Republican filibusters. It will take equal political will to fuse the Senate’s bill with the more expansive reform approved by the House and enact a final version. The House bill was approved by 220 to 215, and the Senate bill passed with 60 votes, the minimum needed to defeat a filibuster. The risk is that anything that upsets the balance of compromises in either chamber could doom the effort.

The Obama Way
Ross Douthat, NY Times
President Obama baffles observers because he's an ideologue and a pragmatist all at once. He’s a doctrinaire liberal who’s always willing to cut a deal and grab for half the loaf. He has the policy preferences of a progressive blogger, but the governing style of a seasoned Beltway wheeler-dealer.

Catholic Group Supports Senate on Abortion Aid
David Kirkpatrick, NY Times
Just days before the bill passed, the Catholic Health Association, which represents hundreds of Catholic hospitals across the country, said in a statement that it was "encouraged" and "increasingly confident" that such a compromise "can achieve the objective of no federal funding for abortion." An umbrella group for nuns followed its lead. The same day, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops called the proposed compromise "morally unacceptable."

Hope, hopelessness and faith
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
..what we really need is not hope. Hope can be the enemy of action. Hope can be a drug that maroons us in cafes in long, satisfying conversations that never lead anywhere but back to the cafe the next night. In hope's place I nominate faith. Not religious faith, but what George Santayana calls "animal faith."..faith in the world: that it is there, that it won't give way underfoot when you take the next step, that you just know which way to turn and how to proceed. It's the faith your hands have and your feet have.....the cat jumps on the tree and starts climbing..The cat has an animal faith in the tree and it loves the tree, loves itself, loves jumping and climbing--no self-examination there, no introspection about belief.

Tumbling Real M3 Promises Intensified Depression; Major Double-Dip Downturn Should Be Obvious by Mid-Year 2010
John Williams, Shadow Government Statistics (subscription required)
This relatively brief Commentary during the holiday hiatus in economic releases is one of the most important pieces put out during the current economic and systemic solvency crises. It begins, using now-available hard data, to lay the base for a severe second downleg in what already is the longest and deepest economic contraction since the first-downleg of the Great Depression in the early-1930s..While consensus forecasters and the hypesters on Wall Street and in the Administration already have pronounced the economy to be in recovery, the best case I can make for recent economic reporting is that broad business activity in some areas has flattened out at a low-level plateau of activity..what lies ahead should be a renewed plunge in economic activity that will be recognized by all.

India mines riches as west’s back office
James Lamont, Financial Times online
Business processing is set to overtake IT outsourcing in terms of revenue as Indian vendors diversify into services such as human resources, payroll management and legal services. Moreover, leading Indian outsourcing companies are themselves opening operations in other countries, such as China, the Philippines and the US..He foresees Indian business laying claim to a rather larger slice of the US in the coming years, in attitude and social mobility as much as business revenues."This Indian industry has carved out a route to the American dream for our workers," he says.

The Copenhagen That Matters
Thomas L. Friedman, NY Times
How long are we Americans going to go on thinking that we can thrive in the 21st century when doing the optimal things - whether for energy, health care, education or the deficit - are "off the table." They’ve been banished by an ad hoc coalition of lobbyists loaded with money, loud-mouth talk-show hosts who will flame anyone who crosses them, political consultants who warn that asking Americans to do anything important but hard makes one unelectable and a citizenry that doesn’t even ask for optimal anymore because it believes that optimal is impossible.

The Bomb at the Heart of the System
John Michael Greer, Energy Bulletin
Behind all of this lies the central political fact of the limits to growth: the reduction of First World nations to a Third World lifestyle that will be the inevitable result of any transition to a postpetroleum world, whether that transition is deliberate or unplanned. Metaphors about elephants in living rooms don’t begin to touch the political explosiveness of this fact, or the degree to which people at every point on the political spectrum have tried to pretend that it just isn’t so. Still, set aside delusions about miraculous new energy sources that show up basically because we want them to, and it’s impossible to evade.